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美國人口老齡化意味著勞動力萎縮

kira86 于2019-06-18發布 l 已有人瀏覽
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各種研究表明,人口老齡化將會減緩經濟增長,成年勞力會越來越少。
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Aging Americans Means Shrinking Workforce

美國人口老齡化意味著勞動力萎縮

Americans are getting older, and family size is getting smaller. That means the United States will have less working adults in the future.

美國的老齡化越來越嚴重,家庭人口也越來越少,這意味著未來美國的成年勞力會越來越少。

By 2030, twenty percent of U.S. residents will be 66 years of age or older. That compares to 13 percent in 2010, and just under 10 percent in 1970.

到2030年,有20%的美國居民將會年滿66歲。相比之下,2010年只有13%的美國居民年滿66歲,而1970年不到10%的美國居民年滿66歲。

The aging population could be a concern if Americans expect to have an expanding population, says David Kelly. He is with the investment company J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

大衛·凱利表示,如果預期美國人口不斷增長,人口老齡化可能會成為隱憂。凱利就職于摩根資產管理公司。

If you're investing in things like the housing industry or the auto industry and you need an ever-growing population, then you have to adjust to a world in which the U.S. population is growing more slowly, he said.

他說:“如果你投資房地產或汽車等需要人口不斷增長的行業,那你得調整以適應美國人口增長變慢的社會現狀。”

Different studies show that an aging population cuts into economic growth, and older workers who stay on the job are often less productive than younger ones.

各種研究表明,人口老齡化將會減緩經濟增長,而且老齡員工的工作效率通常要比年輕人低。

But as Americans are aging, last year the birth rate nationwide dropped to its lowest level in 32 years. Less than 3.8 million babies were born in 2018, which is two percent less than the year before. Taken as a whole, the population grew only six-tenths of one percent in 2018, compared to 1.2 percent growth in the 1990s.

但是隨著美國人口老齡化,去年美國的出生率降到了32年以來的最低水平。2018年出生的嬰兒人數不足380萬,比上一年減少了2%。總地來說,2018年美國人口增長率僅為0.6%,而上世紀90年代的增長率為1.2%。

Kelly said the low birth rate is not necessarily bad news. Looking beyond economics, a growing world population could do more damage to Earth's environment. He said that U.S. policy makers should plan for dealing with a smaller workforce.

凱利表示,低出生率并不一定就是壞消息。著眼于經濟以外,人口不斷增長可能會給地球環境造成更大的破壞。他說美國的政策制定者應該制定計劃以應對勞動力減少。

We really should adapt to a world of slow population growth because it's clearly happening to us, he said.

他說:“我們確實應該適應一個人口增長緩慢的世界,因為它顯然已經發生在我們身上。”

What will replace human workers? Like others, Kelly expects the lack of workers to fuel the growth of robotics and artificial intelligence. He said that Americans need to prepare for the U.S. economic growth to slow a little in the future.

取代人類勞動力的將會是什么?跟其他人一樣,凱利預計勞動力缺乏將推動機器人技術和人工智能的發展。他表示,美國人需要為美國經濟增長在未來變緩做好準備。。

Another way to fix the shrinking workforce is to add more legal immigrants. Immigrants usually arrive in the United States when they are of working age.

解決勞動力萎縮的另一種辦法是增加更多的合法移民。移民通常會在就業年齡來到美國。

But this is not an easy solution, because the U.S. Congress and President Donald Trump continue to disagree over how to deal with immigration issues.

但是這也很棘手,因為美國國會跟川普總統在如何處理移民問題上仍然意見不一。

The U.S. economy can easily make changes to deal with the slower population growth, Kelly said. But he worries that politics could get in the way of solutions.

凱利表示,美國經濟很容易做出改變,以應對人口增長放緩,但他擔心政治因素會阻礙解決。

The real question is a political question, he notes, "because it seems even as our population matures in years, it seems that our political system gets less mature in terms of thought process."

他指出:“這本質上是一個政治問題,因為看上去即使未來幾年我們的人口發展成熟,我們的政治體系在思維過程方面還不夠成熟。”

I'm Anne Ball.

我是安妮·鮑爾。

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